AfCFTA trade scenarios
CGE Monte Carlo estimates of the GDP, welfare and employment impacts of four AfCFTA implementation packages, plus a lab for user-defined packages.
Model projections, not observed data. GDP impacts come from an economic (CGE) model run many times with a randomly drawn trade elasticity (Monte Carlo), scaled by each country's AfCFTA-RI; welfare and employment are fixed shares of the GDP effect.
Known limitation: the economy-size term uses the same placeholder GDP (US$20bn) for every country, so results do not yet reflect differences in economy size.
Package comparison
Mean % GDP impact per implementation package (welfare and employment below)
| Package (mean impact) | GDP | Welfare | Employment |
|---|
Country impacts · scenario A
A — top 20 by mean % GDP impact (2.5–97.5 percentile band, welfare and employment in the tooltip)
Simulation lab
Define your own implementation package (base GDP shock, trade elasticity, draws) and run the same Monte Carlo the preset packages use. Sign in with a role that holds run_custom_scenarios to use the lab.
Preset anchors: tariff elimination 2.24 · NTM harmonisation 2.81 · trade facilitation 1.75 · combined 6.71
How easily trade re-routes between partners (calibrated mean 2.8)
What drives the AfCFTA-RI
Sobol sensitivity (Saltelli) of the index to its five dimensions, computed from the real panel — S1 is the share of index variance a dimension explains alone, ST its share including interactions
Gravity model (PPML)
Real Silva-Tenreyro estimation on CEPII pair covariates and IMF bilateral trade — the trade elasticities behind the scenario calibration