Climate scenarios to 2050

Preset SSP climate pathways to 2050, plus a live lab for policy-defined scenarios.

Model projections, not observed data. Each pathway carries the latest FSRI forward with a climate penalty proportional to that scenario's warming, plus linear adaptation gains. The shaded band is the spread across countries (2.5th to 97.5th percentile), not statistical uncertainty.

Continental FSRI to 2050

Mean across countries with the 2.5 to 97.5 percentile band · diamond marks the latest baseline

Simulation lab

requires run_custom_scenarios

Define your own pathway (warming, adaptation investment, one-off pillar shocks) and project the continental FSRI onto the chart above. Sign in with a role that holds run_custom_scenarios to use the lab.

Warming by horizon+2.0°C

Adaptation gains0.15 pts/yr

Horizon

One-off pillar shocks (±20 pts)

Climate Exposure0

Food Trade0

Nutrition0

Adaptive Capacity0

Scenario summary

+2.0°C by 2050, adaptation 0.15 pts/yr.