Reform simulations
Monte Carlo projections of each country's HCRI to 2030 and 2035 under four reform programmes, plus a lab for user-defined reforms.
Model projections, not observed data. Each programme adds an effect to the country's current HCRI, scaled by that HCRI and drawn many times (Monte Carlo); the 2030 figure uses a reduced effect. Bands are the 2.5th to 97.5th percentile of the 2035 draws.
Reform comparison
Mean HCRI uplift by 2035 across all countries, per reform programme
Country uplift · SIM1
SIM1 — top 20 by mean HCRI uplift by 2035 (2.5–97.5 percentile band in the tooltip)
Simulation lab
Define your own reform (base HCRI-point effect, targeted dimension, draws) and run the same Monte Carlo the preset programmes use. Sign in with a role that holds run_custom_scenarios to use the lab.
Preset anchors: universal secondary 3.2 · digital skills 2.5 · TVET 2.1 · gender parity in STEM 1.8
The realised effect scales with each country's governance capacity (0.8 + 0.004 × HCRI)